Sunday, February 04, 2007

there's something about ..... probability

I like to make guesses.

Just before 8pm tonight, I made 2 guesses.

Singapore to lose and Project Superstar main winner is the lady.

Based on the fact that each guess has only 2 probability, my chances of getting them right is quite high.

I have 25% probabillity of getting 1 correct answer. The reverse will be true that I have 75% probability of getting both the answers correct. On average, I should have at least 50% accuracy.

Now, this would be based on pure guesses. Meaning to say, the above probablity hold true if you ask my soon to be 2 years old son to pick out winners.

However, if you based on educated guess, your probability of getting them correct is closer to the 75% percentile.

I was confident of my guesses considering I follow the progress up to both the Finals.

Thailand is faster, technically stronger, fitter and has home-ground advantage. Scoring 1 goal is no problem.

Diya Tan has a more soothing face than Darren Tan. I didn't think too much about their singing capability so I based my guesses based on how I feel about their look.

So, I do expect myself to get at least 50% right.

But we now know that why this is called math of probability, and not math of certainty. As they say, the only certain things in life is Death and Taxes!


Anonymous said...

err....i dun mean to be offensive, but i was wondering how could the probability of getting 2 rights be higher than 1 right?

the scenarios are like this (the first is the asean soccer match and the second one is the singing match):
Right Wrong
Wrong Right
Right Right
Wrong Wrong

So, assuming all strengths are equal and no favorable conditions for eith side (which is very unlikely), the chances of getting 1 right is 50 %, 2 rights are 25 %, and 2 wrongs 25 %.

Anyways, you lost on the prediction on the soccer match..woohoo...Singapore wins. How did you fare for the other prediction?

Mr Anonymous

Anonymous said...

Hehehe, Mr Anonymous, you just discovered that our moomooman is no maths genius!

Anonymous said...

BTW...he got them BOTH wrong! Imagine the probability of that! He overcame the odds! ;)

Anonymous said...

Now, you will have the singapore team doing ala EPL winner's parade on a roofless bus along orchard road. With the clueless shoppers wondering wtf is going on when they got waved at from top of the bus.

I like to see more pictures published on New Paper.

Anonymous said...

To Mr Anonymous,

you are absolutely right about my mistake.

I not only make bad guesses... I have my probability wrong as well.

Good thing you pointed out my mistake.

And thank you for making me look stupid.

Anonymous said...


Based on Anonymous probablity, I have a 25% of getting both wrong. So I'm not that bad after all.

But to get them both wrong with educated guesses is indeed quite bad.

when will I ever learn...

coolcat said...

Huh? Project Superstar? Over? the last round I still knew abt the Chen-Wei-Lian and the I-can't-remember-her-name girl. This time I didn't even know it was on.

Based on what I've observed over the years.. if I ever bet in soccer, I'll bet on opposite of your predictions! heehee

Anonymous said...

To coolcat:

the gal is Pan Jiali.

Mr Anonymous